When Experience Makes Us Too Certain of the Answer

Experience makes us faster at recognizing patterns. Sometimes it also makes it harder to see what’s changed.

Years ago, I was troubleshooting an issue where data was being dropped between systems. Based on everything I’d seen before, I was convinced another system was causing it.

But I don’t like saying I’m 100% certain without all the facts, so I said there was a 99% chance the problem was on their end.

This time, I was wrong. It was the 1%.

Fortunately, leaving that small amount of uncertainty kept us from shutting down the investigation on our side. We eventually found the problem.

Experience is valuable because it gives us patterns to draw from. But those patterns can also make a new situation look more familiar than it really is.

For leaders, that matters because our confidence influences everyone else’s thinking. If we’re too certain too early, we can unintentionally shut down the questions that might prove us wrong.

The more certain your experience makes you, the more important it can be to leave room for what might be different this time.